Author, Katie Trowsdale, Head of Client Investment Solutions - Multi Asset Investment Solutions
The year to date has been a period of remarkable returns and significant challenges for investors.
One of the most striking developments has been the extraordinary performance of a select few companies - often referred to as the ‘Magnificent Seven’ - within the US market.
These firms, primarily in the tech sector, have driven market gains, but their performance has also highlighted the risks associated with high concentration in portfolios.
The US stock market has seen impressive returns, with a handful of companies such as Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia leading the charge.
These companies have grown exponentially, with Nvidia's market capitalisation alone at one point soaring from $2 trillion to $3 trillion in just 30 days.(1) The rapid ascent of Nvidia has outpaced entire national markets, raising questions about sustainability and future growth.
From a historical perspective, the concentration of the market’s value in the top 10% of stocks versus the entire US market is unprecedented since the 1930s. The Magnificent Seven are highly profitable and their stock prices have been driven by robust earnings. However, small changes in earnings expectations and outlook can lead to significant volatility, especially for companies with such large market caps.
We’ve seen this happen in September. After a year of stellar performance, it’s been a painful month so far for Nvidia investors, with shares in the electronics company tumbling in value amid gloomy US economic forecasts and antitrust concerns. Volatility peaked early in the month, when Nvidia shares fell by 9.5% in one day, wiping $278.9 billion from the tech company’s stock market value. It was the biggest single-day loss ever for a US company.(2)
The current market dynamics underscore the importance of diversification. History has shown that markets can change rapidly, and what’s profitable today may not be so tomorrow. For instance, in March 2008, US stocks represented less than 40% of the world's market cap.(3)
Fast forward to today, and the US now accounts for nearly 70% of the MSCI All Country World Index. (4) This kind of dominance is reminiscent of Japan's market bubble in the late 1980s, which saw the country’s stocks making up 40% of the global equity market just before a downturn.(5) Japan represents around 5% of world equity markets today.(4)
Diversification means looking beyond the US for investment opportunities and considering a multi-asset approach to portfolios.
Global markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, are trading at more attractive valuations compared to their historical averages. For instance, European small caps and emerging markets offer the potential for attractive returns. And they’re available at reasonable valuations.
Moreover, fixed income is making a comeback. Government bond yields are back to attractive levels, and corporate bonds are also offering appealing yields. This is an opportune time to rebalance portfolios to include a broader opportunity set and create a hedge against market volatility.
The investment landscape is ever-changing, and 2024 to date has highlighted the importance of strategic asset allocation, diversification (by asset class, sector and stock) and risk management.
While the Magnificent Seven have driven significant market gains, their concentration poses potential risks, as we’ve seen recently. We believe that by looking beyond these concentrated plays and exploring global opportunities, investors can better position themselves for long-term success.
In our view, a balanced portfolio with the flexibility to adapt to market changes can help your clients navigate today’s complex investment universe.
With an outsourced investment management solution like MyFolio, you can leave strategic asset allocation and diversification to your investment managers, so your time is focused on your clients.
Risk warning
The value of investments, and the income from them, can go down as well as up and an investor may get back less than the amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future results.