Cyclical, structural, vintage

21 May 2024

Aviva Investors: Cyclical, structural, vintage

High inflation and rising rates hit activity in real estate markets over the past year. But cautious optimism is now returning to the investment landscape in the UK and Europe, say Imogen Ebbs and George Fraser-Harding.

Read this article to understand:

  • Why the UK and European real estate markets look to be entering a new phase
  • How rate cuts could affect the residential market
  • How the Long-Term Asset Fund regime could influence UK real estate investment

High inflation and rising interest rates significantly altered the landscape for a range of investments over the past 12 months, real estate included. The challenging macroeconomic and financial environment depressed property values and led to a period of market recalibration.

But the impact on market participants varied widely. While certain real estate funds have been compelled to sell assets under duress, those investors with ready access to capital have found opportunities to secure high-quality assets at favourable prices.

With the macroeconomic outlook more certain and public debt and equity real estate markets starting to stabilise, we believe conditions are such that a new chapter of the cycle is emerging. At this inflexion point, it is clearly important to assess the influence of both cyclical shifts and longer-term structural megatrends on sectors and individual assets. Deploying capital at the optimal moment is also critical. 

In this Q&A, Aviva Investors’ George Fraser-Harding (GFH), head of pan-European real estate funds, and Imogen Ebbs (IE), head of UK real estate equity funds, discuss the current state of the market cycle, how the anticipation of rate cuts is influencing investment behaviour and how the sustainability profile of assets is affecting pricing.

How have the UK and European real estate markets performed over the last year and what is your outlook for the remainder of this year?

GFH: The impact of market downturns has not been uniform across regions (see Figure 1). The UK saw the sharpest pricing adjustment globally. Repricing then followed in continental European markets.

Figure 1: Capital value decline across regions (per cent)

Source: Aviva Investors. Data as of May 2024.

The correction process in the UK has been rapid and is now showing signs of stabilisation, a trend we anticipate will extend to Europe in the latter half of the year. This variation in the timing of the market recovery suggests the UK may experience positive capital performance sooner than Europe.

A distinguishing factor in this market correction is the strength of the occupier market, particularly in prime sectors such as strategic logistics locations, Grade A offices in major cities, and the broader residential market.1,2 Investing wisely in these areas not only gives investors the opportunity to benefit from capital value stabilisation or recovery but also the potential to capture significant rental growth.

IE: This year, the three watchwords are cyclical, structural and vintage.

On a cyclical level, the UK is at a pivotal juncture, embarking on a new and exciting real estate cycle characterised by significant market adjustments. With inflation starting to ease, there is a sense of cautious optimism as we advance into the second half of the year. Although we may not return to the historically low interest rates that followed in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), some rate cuts are expected and the outlook for prime real estate assets in the UK is increasingly appealing, particularly over a five-year horizon.

A longer-term structural perspective is crucial. Megatrends such as the energy transition, the changing nature of work, demographics and global supply chains are transforming the macroeconomic order, and these shifts are playing out at a local level. Ensuring we identify the potential winners and losers within the built environment and align our capital to where we see long-term structural demand is critical to driving long-term value.

As for vintage, the current phase looks to be optimal for deploying capital and the first couple of years of the new cycle are poised to offer a particularly compelling investment window as valuations stabilise and we start to get greater clarity on the macroeconomic outlook. Last year, we took advantage of capital repricing and acquired best-in-class assets at deep discounts. Our total investment of £1.5 billion into high-conviction sectors across the UK and Europe puts our strategies in a strong position moving into recovery.3

How have high interest rates impacted real estate markets, and what effect might the anticipated shift towards more relaxed monetary policies have on investment?

IE: In the UK, the market has been adopting a cautious stance, anticipating the onset of a rate-cutting cycle. This has contributed to a lack of activity. Prospective sellers, in particular, have been hesitating to move forward with deals. Bid-price spreads are narrowing, and we expect to see the market dynamic and investor profile change when the expected rate cuts begin.

One sector to watch closely is residential real estate, especially single-family housing. Market conditions were supportive in 2023 as debt-backed buyers retrenched from the market, mortgages became unaffordable, taxation changes interrupted supply and housebuilders sought more partnership deals. We took advantage of this market, deploying £500m into 1,300 homes across a number of transactions in the UK. The market dynamic is expected to change as debt becomes accretive (i.e., adds value) again but our sustained engagement with programmatic partners and builders over three years places us in a strong position to navigate any impact on pipeline and a more competitive marketplace.4

GFH: In pockets of the continental European market, the cost of finance is becoming accretive already. A decline in interest rates would lower borrowing costs further. However, it is important to note that while liquid markets typically react swiftly to rate cuts, in real estate and other private markets the response may lag. Thus, there may be a delay between the decline in interest rates and a new phase of activity.

As for the effects of higher rates, liquidity is scarce in the pan-European markets, leading to signs of distress of late. We have capitalised on this by securing deals from motivated sellers. Another surge in forced sales may occur if liquidity does not improve before the distress intensifies, which could create further opportunities for investors with capital ready to deploy. Our primary expectation, however, is for a gradual reduction in interest rates in Europe, accompanied by an increase in market liquidity. While there is a risk of price volatility due to these dynamics, we believe markets will stay resilient and gradually stabilise.

On the subject of distress, we have seen sales of office buildings in London at large discounts to prior valuations in recent months. Are distressed sales being observed in other locations?

IE: The market is experiencing localised pressures, with certain sectors and assets facing more significant challenges. Unlike the GFC, the current pressures are not uniform across the market but concentrated in certain sectors and more acute where assets have significant capital expenditure needs or weak investor appetite. Prime UK office spaces in London continue to show resilience, with a positive outlook for capital value recovery and strong rental growth. There are greater concerns in other office markets, however, such as Germany.

GFH: Right across Europe, deals are being done at valuations significantly below the ones we saw in 2022. Different countries are seeing different levels of distress depending on the approach to debt, which is creating opportunities. During the GFC, you could have bought almost any real estate asset during the turmoil and expected the price to go up in the years afterwards. This market is different; you have to be specific and focused in terms of the sectors, locations and quality of assets you are investing in.5 Opportunities may abound, but many hinge on being precise in the investment process and decision making.

What are your plans for 2024, and where do you see the biggest opportunities?

GFH: Last year, we invested predominantly in the UK, owing to limited opportunities in Europe. However, as pricing expectations adjust, we have started investing in Europe and anticipate a more balanced investment spread between the UK and Europe in the coming year, reflecting the evolving market dynamics.

In 2024, our focus is on Pan-European and UK logistics due to the exceptional value we’ve identified in this sector for our clients, which should also benefit from favourable longer-term megatrends, such as continued strong appetite for e-commerce and rising demand for on-shoring warehouse facilities.6 Additionally, we will continue investing in the living sector, including single-family housing and student accommodation, through our operating platforms in the UK and Spain.

Another priority for us this year is to deepen our involvement with the operational companies that manage our living assets. The management of real estate has evolved to become more operational in nature, and we are adapting by enhancing our relationships with these companies to ensure our living assets are managed effectively.

How will the advent of the Long-Term Asset Fund (LTAF) regime influence investment in UK real estate?

IE: The LTAF regime is a new category of investment funds designed to provide a broader range of investors with access to private market assets. They have been designed through extensive industry collaboration, and with the Financial Conduct Authority, to have stronger oversight mechanisms and liquidity controls that protect and enhance investor outcomes.

The expectation is that LTAFs will create shifts in the market landscape. The regime provides a new route for different types of capital, with investors such as the defined contribution (DC) pension market in mind. This should mean the sector’s investor base could grow and diversify, with new opportunities for patient capital to access real estate. For DC pension funds that need liquidity, real estate becomes a strong option. This capital will support further investment in real estate and new infrastructure across the country, helping drive economic growth.

Secondly, managers will have to focus closely on the ability to grow their existing fund structures, given older, limited structures are expected to gradually be wound down as the advantages of LTAFs become clear. As the fund structure landscape changes, volatility in selling, high cash levels and forced selling, especially from retail funds, could become much less common. With the Aviva Investors Real Estate Active LTAF (REALTAF) our ability to deliver its research-led thematic strategy will not be undermined by the ongoing uncertainty created by liquidity as seen in traditional open-ended structures.

In all, the belief is that LTAFs can transform the UK’s institutional real estate landscape and contribute to greater investment across a wider array of private markets in the UK.

What are the implications of “green premia” and broader ESG factors on real estate investment strategies?

IE: The concept of a green premium in real estate is simple: it refers to achieving better pricing dynamics as a result of better energy efficiency standards within a building. Calculating it however is not as straightforward: it encompasses a multifaceted set of adjustments related to rents, yields and capital expenditure expectations. These adjustments are influenced by the type of asset, sector, occupier, and the investor market dynamics in which its sits. Such factors are continuously evolving, and evidence is emerging that the impacts are heterogenous.

Given such considerations are becoming increasingly important across real estate markets, an opportunity is created to drive value as part of our capital pricing and underwriting approach. Conversely, risks associated with stranded assets, particularly in markets where there is less appetite for best-in-class energy efficient buildings, warrant careful consideration. The issue here is the opposite of the green premium, sometimes known as a brown discount on energy-inefficient assets.

There are growing concerns about real estate assets where expenditure on efficiency improvements may not be financially justified, and that is something all real estate investors should analyse carefully. The complexity and rapid evolution of ESG is leading to opportunities for mispricing, offering a potential to drive alpha, but also ensuring it is becoming a critical part of managing of capital at risk.

References

  1. “Aviva Investors fully-lets York Street office in Manchester”, Aviva Investors, December 14, 2023.
  2. Jonathan Bayfield, “Des res: Opportunities in rental housing for institutional investors”, Aviva Investors, January 25, 2024.
  3. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
  4. Programmatic partners are partners we do transactions with one deal at a time.
  5. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.
  6. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

Important information

THIS IS A MARKETING COMMUNICATION

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (AIGSL). Unless stated otherwise any views and opinions are those of Aviva Investors. They should not be viewed as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors nor as advice of any nature. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but has not been independently verified by Aviva Investors and is not guaranteed to be accurate. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The value of an investment and any income from it may go down as well as up and the investor may not get back the original amount invested. Nothing in this material, including any references to specific securities, assets classes and financial markets is intended to or should be construed as advice or recommendations of any nature. Some data shown are hypothetical or projected and may not come to pass as stated due to changes in market conditions and are not guarantees of future outcomes. This material is not a recommendation to sell or purchase any investment.

The information contained herein is for general guidance only. It is the responsibility of any person or persons in possession of this information to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation.

In Europe, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Luxembourg S.A. Registered Office: 2 rue du Fort Bourbon, 1st Floor, 1249 Luxembourg. Supervised by Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. An Aviva company. In the UK, this document is by Aviva Investors Global Services Limited. Registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: 80 Fenchurch Street, London, EC3M 4AE. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Firm Reference No. 119178. In Switzerland, this document is issued by Aviva Investors Schweiz GmbH.

In Singapore, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Asia Pte. Limited (AIAPL) for distribution to institutional investors only. Please note that AIAPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIAPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIAPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Singapore with registration number 200813519W, holds a valid Capital Markets Services Licence to carry out fund management activities issued under the Securities and Futures Act (Singapore Statute Cap. 289) and Asian Exempt Financial Adviser for the purposes of the Financial Advisers Act (Singapore Statute Cap.110). Registered Office: 138 Market Street, #05-01 CapitaGreen, Singapore 048946.

In Australia, this material is being circulated by way of an arrangement with Aviva Investors Pacific Pty Ltd (AIPPL) for distribution to wholesale investors only. Please note that AIPPL does not provide any independent research or analysis in the substance or preparation of this material. Recipients of this material are to contact AIPPL in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this material. AIPPL, a company incorporated under the laws of Australia with Australian Business No. 87 153 200 278 and Australian Company No. 153 200 278, holds an Australian Financial Services License (AFSL 411458) issued by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission. Business address: Level 27, 101 Collins Street, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia.

The name “Aviva Investors” as used in this material refers to the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. Each Aviva investors’ affiliate is a subsidiary of Aviva plc, a publicly- traded multi-national financial services company headquartered in the United Kingdom.

Aviva Investors Canada, Inc. (“AIC”) is located in Toronto and is based within the North American region of the global organization of affiliated asset management businesses operating under the Aviva Investors name. AIC is registered with the Ontario Securities Commission as a commodity trading manager, exempt market dealer, portfolio manager and investment fund manager. AIC is also registered as an exempt market dealer and portfolio manager in each province of Canada and may also be registered as an investment fund manager in certain other applicable provinces.

Aviva Investors Americas LLC is a federally registered investment advisor with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Aviva Investors Americas is also a commodity trading advisor (“CTA”) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) and is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”). AIA’s Form ADV Part 2A, which provides background information about the firm and its business practices, is available upon written request to: Compliance Department, 225 West Wacker Drive, Suite 2250, Chicago, IL 60606.


Share this article