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Perspectives from GSAM Strategic Advisory Solutions
Perspectives from GSAM Strategic Advisory Solutions
Globally, the severe economic and health consequences of COVID-19 will not be equally distributed, but we trust that this moment too shall pass. Our baseline economic forecast is for the sudden deceleration in economic activity to be most acute in the second quarter, followed by a resurgence in growth during the second half of 2020 and into 2021. The remainder of this edition will focus on summarizing our macro expectations and providing a framework for riding the storm out.
On 11th March the Bank of England announced a set of policy measures aimed at easing the impact of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. This was coordinated with announcements on fiscal spending unveiled later in the day by Chancellor Sunak as part of the Budget.
Following extreme volatility in financial markets, signs of dysfunction in the bond markets and rising disruptions in US economic activity, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) responded on Sunday with a massive easing program. The Fed’s move, which accompanies a series of steps by central banks and governments around the world, signals that the policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has shifted into high gear.
The number of new daily cases in China continues to be in the low double digits with the government now considering immigration restrictions to stem the flow of the virus coming from outside the country. The total number of cases outside mainland China has now exceeded those reported within China. South Korea has also shown a very positive response to the virus with only 74 new cases and a fatality rate of less than 1% highlighting the value of increased testing. While the situation continues to improve in China and other parts of Asia, Europe and North America have begun enacting more extensive measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and ‘flatten the curve’.
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