The 15 years since the start of the Global Financial Crisis have been a difficult time for Value as illustrated in Fig. 1. We show below that this underperformance has largely been driven by low inflation and government bond yields.

In our fourth post in this series, we look at the questions that Russia's invasion raises for the global economy. We also outline our views on the outlook for Fed, BoE and ECB policy.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis is progressing at a rapid pace, and recent developments suggest that a military conflict is increasingly likely. Needless to say, there is a large degree of uncertainty about what form this would take.

Inflation remains transitory, but it’s putting central banks under pressure and at risk of making a policy mistake, says Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income.

 In 2020, the impact of the pandemic on the US labour market was unprecedented, with the unemployment rate in the country hitting 14.8% at its peak and the number of unemployed soaring, from some 7 million to over 23 million. In this brief note we take a close look at the US labour market today and discuss why it is important for investors to watch in the coming months.

Everyone seems to agree rates will need to go up. Few have confidence about how high. And there’s even less clarity about how inflation will be affected by potential megatrends: climate-related border taxes, global work from home forever, and post-pandemic early retirement.

The surprise for markets may be less around the timing of the Fed’s lift-off, and more the magnitude of rate hikes required to cool a potentially overheating economy.

The largest central banks may expect the inflation storm to pass, but they can’t predict the weather – which may have important implications for commodity prices, inflation, and multi-asset investors.