Alongside our work on specific sustainability themes, we also make use of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDG framework provides us with a consistent way of assessing our investments and engagements alongside the global sustainable development agenda, enabling us to have a deeper and more holistic view.

At the start of the year, the consensus forecast a big year for Europe – double-digit corporate earnings growth. This was reinforced by multiple factors: strong bank balance sheets and the potential for renewed loan growth; supportive German fiscal policy following the relaxation of the ‘debt brake’; relative consumer strength (compared to the US and China); easing inflation; the potential for interest rate cuts; and cheaper energy.

With oil prices still up by more than 50% as a result of the Middle East conflict, and 20 million barrels a day of supply at risk, it is worth stepping back from the headlines.

Energy markets have become the front line of the Iran conflict’s market impact. Geopolitical risk was widely anticipated, and crude prices had already moved higher in the weeks ahead of the attacks. However, the abrupt slowdown in physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz has introduced a new and more acute supply risk.

Disruptions linked to Iran have translated geopolitical risk into real oil supply constraints, reshaping global energy markets.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East has heightened geopolitical tension and driven sharp swings in energy markets. With the economic impact hinging on the flow of oil, investors should remain disciplined and focus on long‑term fundamentals over fast‑moving headlines.

In a market crowded with active equity strategies, it can be difficult for investors to identify funds that consistently outperform the market through pure stock-picking. While most managers use either a quantitative model or fundamentals-based approach, we believe combining the benefits of both – within a liquid and transparent ETF structure – may support attractive outcomes over time.

From a fundamental standpoint, earnings are inflecting higher for small cap companies after an earnings downturn in 2023 and into 2024. As of January 2026, bottom‑up consensus from Bloomberg suggests the Russell 2000 will deliver 43% year‑over‑year earnings growth over the coming twelve months, the Russell 2500 will grow by 18%, and the large cap S&P 500 is expected to deliver 11% over the same period. While the whole market is forecast to see meaningful earnings growth, smaller companies are expected to lead. In 2025, earnings were one of the main drivers of stock market returns (rather than multiple expansion / contraction), so a strong showing from small cap earnings could support further share price performance.

Technology continues to underpin global economic growth, productivity and innovation.

In this update, Keith Balmer, Portfolio Manager provides an update on how conflict in the Middle East has impacted markets, discusses how potential scenarios could play out and explains how the team are monitoring the situation.*

This week we focus on the US Federal Reserve (Fed). We explore looming changes in leadership and a pause in rate cuts that looks set to be maintained for some time given inflation and employment numbers.

The real story of artificial intelligence (AI) is the multi‑year progression of capital flows that will define which companies lead, when they lead and why.

This week we focus on the weekend’s Japanese elections. Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, secured a better-than-expected outcome for her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which now has a super majority in the lower house of the Japanese Parliament.