24 Jun 2020
We recently surveyed our team of analysts across the globe to get the on-the-ground view of what they’re hearing from companies. This month’s findings reveal that activity in most sectors and regions is expected to return to a stable level in under a year - but which regions and sectors show the most promise?
This month’s Fidelity Pulse Survey shows growing optimism among analysts over the path of the Covid-19 outbreak, with business disruption estimated to come to an end within 10 months, according to the global aggregate of responses.
China leads the recovery, with a wait of just under six months expected for business to reach stability. The country’s economic momentum has gathered pace with the consumption of iron ore at record levels.
Some analysts are already reporting an end to Covid-19 disruption. Some Chinese industrials companies, particularly those that have largely domestic exposure have rebounded to similar levels versus pre-covid-19 or even slightly above.
Energy and financial companies have the longest journey back to stability, of around 14 months, while, looking at regions, EMEA and LatAm will take 14.5 months to return, due to continued Covid-19 outbreaks and the regions struggling to contain the virus - the effects of this could be long lasting. Financials analysts expect the return to stability in their sector to take more than 12 months, in part because lenders will have to restructure troubled loans once government stimulus programs end later this year.
The generally upbeat picture is confirmed by a noticeable jump in the proportion of analysts seeing positive leading indicators in their sectors.
The energy sector has seen the greatest improvement in fortunes, led by the stabilising price of oil, with 73% of analysts responding that leading indicators are positive, up from just 8% two months ago.
April was the nadir – featuring a tense geopolitical price war, a briefly negative oil price and concerns over growing inventories. However, since then, production cuts have been implemented faster than expected, pushing the spot price back into positive double figures, and lifting the 12-month prospects of energy companies.
When business activity does stabilise, and the Covid-19 crisis passes, it will do so at levels below those seen in 2019. The global average of analyst responses shows that activity will be 2.9% lower than pre-Covid levels, while activity in China is expected to be 2% lower, and Europe will be 4.4% lower.
The outlook for the consumer staples sector is good, with activity expected to stabilise 4% higher than 2019 within the 10 months. Only healthcare fared better, with a reading of 6.6%. However, activity in the consumer discretionary sector is expected to stabilise at a level 8.7% lower than seen in 2019.
Despite the urgent focus that the Covid-19 outbreak has placed on corporate survival and financial strength, analysts report that environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors are taking precedence over profit maximisation. Only 15% of analysts said their companies would not be willing to sacrifice some earnings to pursue a more sustainable agenda.
Companies are willing to sacrifice some earnings growth to pursue a more sustainable agenda
The biggest shift, as reported last month, has been the increased focus on societal issues. This month, the survey found that this trend will outlast the Covid-19 outbreak in some areas - 15% of North America analysts, a higher proportion than in Europe, said they expected the majority of social-oriented changes in the companies would be permanent.
A good example of Covid-19’s social consequences on business is a change in the role of banking, with lenders playing a utility function in distributing government stimulus packages and helping borrowers through their period of financial difficulty.
Important information
This information is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of investments in overseas markets. Reference in this document to specific securities should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities, but is included for the purposes of illustration only.