09 Mar 2021
Global Head of Macro Salman Ahmed debates the potential for a tantrum in markets due to the risks emanating from fiscal dominance and inflation moving higher. He also looks ahead and considers future central bank intervention and how this could impact returns across asset classes.
The nature of the quantitative easing (QE) deployed post the March/April 2020 lockdown is very different from what we saw in the wake of the Great Financial Crisis. The primary role of central bank balance sheet expansion this time has been to facilitate fiscal spending, rather than support financial conditions. As part of our analysis, we have mapped out this highly abnormal environment and what its consequences might be.
While developed market nominal yields have been rising since August 2020, our analysis shows that the composition of rise in nominal yields matters. According to our tantrum risk assessment, an environment in which real rates are rising and inflation break-evens are falling constitutes a tantrum regime, based on our analysis of similar episodes in 2013 and 2018 when yields spiked.
Indeed, it is the change in the composition of the drivers of the increase in nominal rates in recent weeks which is now reverberating across the markets. After a period of relative stability, real rates have indeed quickly caught up with break-evens and snapped higher. We see real yields as a key barometer for risky assets. Environments in which real rate increases surpass changes in inflation break-evens have been tough for risky assets historically. There is also a clear relationship with the behaviour of growth vs value style factors.
We think that, unlike in 2013 and 2018, this tantrum is not driven by perceived Fed hawkishness. Instead, it is due to the risks emanating from the impending fiscal dominance that will drive a notch-up in cyclical inflation. Yet, even in a fiscal policy-led reflationary environment, with over $280bn outstanding that needs refinancing, the cost of capital matters, and eventually leads to tighter financial conditions that central banks just can’t ignore. Lower real yields are the only way for the system to clear, and markets are now testing central banks’ resolve.
The Fed has been incredibly gentle with policy in this cycle. But how it will use its FAIT (flexible average inflation targeting) framework remains unclear. In the near-term, we think verbal interventions from the Fed will continue but, ultimately, we will need credible evidence that the central bank is indeed targeting negative real rates as a policy.
The most potent Fed tool available here is duration extension (i.e. buying bigger chunks of longer-dated bonds). Interestingly, the European Central Bank has more flexibility as it can always expand the PEPP program to lean against the rise in yields as result of the spill-overs coming from a US-centric tantrum shock.
We are monitoring the liquidity picture in US Treasury markets carefully and our trading teams are already noticing signs of stress, which implies that the system is starting to struggle to adjust to the rapid (real-rate driven) rise in nominal rates. The behaviour of US dollar is also relevant, as any snap-back rally may put further pressure on risky assets as financial conditions tighten further.
In the short-term, volatility is likely to persist, and yields may rise further still. However, while further rises in real rates and tightening of financial conditions may be needed before any real action is taken by central banks, we are closer to a turning a turning point than even a week ago. Central banks will soon be forced into action (the Reserve Bank of Asutralia and Bank of Korea have already intervened), potentially pushing real yields down to depressed levels. This should see risky assets and inflation-linked bonds fare particularly well, as well as bringing stability to government bond markets. The timing, however, will be challenging to call.
Important information
This information is for investment professionals only and should not be relied upon by private investors. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns. Investors should note that the views expressed may no longer be current and may have already been acted upon. Changes in currency exchange rates may affect the value of investments in overseas markets. Investments in small and emerging markets can be more volatile than other more developed markets. The value of bonds is influenced by movements in interest rates and bond yields. If interest rates and so bond yields rise, bond prices tend to fall, and vice versa. The price of bonds with a longer lifetime until maturity is generally more sensitive to interest rate movements than those with a shorter lifetime to maturity. The risk of default is based on the issuer's ability to make interest payments and to repay the loan at maturity. Default risk may therefore vary between different government issuers as well as between different corporate issuers. Reference to specific securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell these securities and is included for the purposes of illustration only.