MARKETS
Across most global asset classes, strong market performance in 2019 more than offset 2018’s losses. This multi-year trend reminds us the importance of sticking to the plan and staying strategically invested. In 2020 we expect moderate economic growth, subdued inflation, and fluid political dynamics to be supportive for risk assets, but likely shifting investor focus to income and alpha-oriented strategies.
Source: Bloomberg and GSAM. As of December 31, 2019.
Market Summary
GLOBAL EQUITIES
Global equities retracted some year-end gains following a military flare-up between the US and Iran, which dampened risk sentiment and led to a 2-point volatility spike. Deeper equity market impact was limited by positive news earlier in the week related to an additional PBOC reserve ratio cut, which should support Chinese growth, and a strong rally in domestic tech sector performance. The S&P 500 marginally declined -0.12% over the week, dropping 5 points from the 2019 high of 3240. Similarly, the STOXX 600 and the FTSE 100 both slid -0.33% and -0.52%, respectively.
COMMODITIES
Escalated tension between the US and Iran led to investors’ fear over another oil supply disruption. Global oil prices rose sharply last week, with crude and WTI prices surging to $63.05 and $68.60 per barrel, respectively. Gold prices also climbed 3.19% as investors poured into safe-haven assets.
FIXED INCOME
US Treasury yields fell on weaker-than-expected economic data and tensions in the Middle East. The 10-Year Treasury yield dropped 9 basis points (bps) to 1.79%, near its three-week low. Geopolitical concerns also spread through European bond markets. The 10-Year German Bund yield fell below its two-week low of -0.29% and ended at -0.28%, while the 10-Year UK Gilt fell 1 bp to 0.74%.
FX
The US Dollar Index ended relatively flat on the week at 96.90, ending the recent trend in US dollar weakening against major currencies since phase 1 of the US-China trade announcement. The week concluded with investors piling into haven assets such as the Japanese yen to shield from geopolitical noise. This led the yen to appreciate 1.28% against the dollar at $108.02. The US dollar also benefited from the risk-off sentiment, though gains were partly erased after a weak US manufacturing print.
Economic Summary
MANUFACTURING
The US ISM Manufacturing Index continued its decline in December to 47.2, reflecting the fifth consecutive month of contractionary readings and the lowest level since June 2009. The print missed consensus expectation for a slight rebound to 49.1. The index was dragged by weakness in employment, order backlogs, and inventory components, and partially driven by recent aircraft production issues and auto worker strikes. Meanwhile, December euro area manufacturing data was revised up to 46.3 from 45.9, a firmer print relative to its preliminary reading.
JOBS
The recent trend in initial jobless claims showed a slight uptick in the four-week moving average, rising by 4k to 233k, reflecting seasonal volatility. The December 28th print showed a 2k reduction in weekly claims, roughly in-line with consensus estimate of 220k.
POLICY
December’s FOMC minutes mirrored Chairman Powell’s messaging from last month, reiterating modest economic growth and a strong labor backdrop. Minutes also detailed improving inflation, citing tighter resource utilization. We anticipate economic data to further stabilize, and for policy action to remain limited.
Style Performance
US Equity Size & Style Returns
MSCI World Size & Style Returns
US Fixed Income Maturity and Quality Returns
European Fixed Income Maturity and Quality Returns
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays and GSAM (as of 01/03/20)
For style performance, Large, Mid, and Small refer to the Russell 1000, Russell Midcap, and Russell 2000 indices, respectively. Value refers to companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower expected growth values, and Growth refers to higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the US Treasury index, the US Corporate Credit index, and the US High Yield index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality.
Key Economic Releases
“Euro PMI” refers to the Markit Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index. “Cons. Conf.” refers to US Consumer Confidence. “GE IFO Business” refers to the German Ifo Business Climate Survey. “New Home Sales” refers to US New Home Sales (MoM). “Dur. Gd. Ord.” refers to US Durable Goods Orders. “UK GDP” refers to the QoQ estimate of the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product for Q3. “Euro M3” refers to the YoY change in the Eurozone’s M3 Money Stock. “US GDP” refers to the estimate of US Gross Domestic Product for Q3. “Pers. Cons.” refers to US Personal Consumption. “UMich Cons. Sent.” refers to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. “Japan Core-Core CPI” refers to Japan’s Consumer Price Index (ex- Food, Energy YoY).
Page 1 Chart of the Week Notes:
“Global Dev. Equity” refers Global Developed Equity, which is represented by the MSCI World Index. "US IG" refers to US Investment Grade, which is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Bond Index. "US HY" refers to US High Yield, which is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index. "Europe IG" refers to Europe Investment Grade, which is represented by the S&P Eurozone Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index. Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
Page 1 Market Summary Notes:
“WTI” stands for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, a common US benchmark for oil prices. “Brent” is a global benchmark for oil prices worldwide. “PBOC” refers to the People’s Bank of China.
Page 1 Economic Summary Notes:
“ISM Manufacturing” refers to the Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index. “FOMC” refers to the Federal Open Market Committee.
Page 2 Style Performance Notes:
For US Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury, the Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Credit, and the Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield indices, respectively. For European Fixed Income, Government, Corporate, and High Yield refer to the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Treasury Index, the Bloomberg Barclays Euro Corporate Index, and the Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index, respectively. Short, Intermediate, and Long refer to the Short, Intermediate, and Long segments of their respective curves. Quality returns refers to the credit quality of asset classes ranging from Government, highest quality, to High Yield, lowest quality. Since August 24, 2016, the Barclays indices are co-branded “Bloomberg Barclays indices”.
Page 2 Economic Watch Notes:
“US Services PMI” refers to the Markit US Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. “Euro PPI” refers to the Eurostat PPI Eurozone Industry Ex Construction YoY. “ISM Non-Manufacturing” refers to the ISM Nonmanufacturing Index. “Euro area CPI YoY” refers to the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. “China CPI YoY” refers to the China Consumer Price Index YoY. “Euro area Unempl.” refers to the Euro area Unemployment Rate.
Page 3 Global Equity Valuations Chart Notes:
Earnings are forward looking Bloomberg estimates of operating earnings per share over the next four quarters, which may exclude one-time extraordinary gains and losses. Please see index disclosures for additional definitions on the indices.
USA is represented by the MSCI USA Index, Dev. Europe is represented by MSCI Europe Index, Germany is represented by MSCI Germany Index, France is represented by MSCI France Index, UK is represented by MSCI UK Index, EM is represented by MSCI EM Index, Japan is represented by MSCI Japan Index, Hong Kong is represented by MSCI Hong Kong Index, China is represented by MSCI China Index, Global Dev. is represented by MSCI World Index.
Risk Considerations
Equity securities are more volatile than bonds and subject to greater risks. Small and mid-sized company stocks involve greater risks than those customarily associated with larger companies. Bonds are subject to interest rate, price and credit risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. Unlike stocks and bonds, U.S. Treasuries securities are guaranteed as to payment of principal and interest if held to maturity. High yield fixed income securities are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default, and tend to be more volatile than investment grade fixed income securities. Income from municipal securities is generally free from federal taxes and state taxes for residents of the issuing state. While the interest income is tax-free, capital gains, if any, will be subject to taxes. Income for some investors may be subject to the federal Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Investments in foreign securities entail special risks such as currency, political, economic, and market risks. These risks are heightened in emerging markets. Investments in commodities may be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity index volatility, changes in interest rates or factors affecting a particular industry or commodity.
The currency market affords investors a substantial degree of leverage. This leverage presents the potential for substantial profits but also entails a high degree of risk including the risk that losses may be similarly substantial. Such transactions are considered suitable only for investors who are experienced in transactions of that kind. Currency fluctuations will also affect the value of an investment.
This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice. This material is not financial research and was not prepared by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (GIR). It was not prepared in compliance with applicable provisions of law designed to promote the independence of financial analysis and is not subject to a prohibition on trading following the distribution of financial research.
The views and opinions expressed may differ from those of GIR or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs and its affiliates. Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities. This information may not be current and GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities.
The information contained in this presentation is not intended to be used as a general guide to investing, or as a source of any specific investment recommendations. This presentation makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the manner in which any client’s account should or would be handled, as appropriate investment strategies depend upon the client’s investment objectives.Goldman Sachs does not provide accounting, tax or legal advice. Please see additional disclosures at the end of this presentation.
Views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute a recommendation by GSAM to buy, sell, or hold any security. Views and opinions are current as of the date of this presentation and may be subject to change, they should not be construed as investment advice.
Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect a series of assumptions and judgments as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Actual data will vary and may not be reflected here. These forecasts are subject to high levels of uncertainty that may affect actual performance. Accordingly, these forecasts should be viewed as merely representative of a broad range of possible outcomes. These forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and are subject to significant revision and may change materially as economic and market conditions change.
Past performance does not guarantee future results, which may vary. The value of investments and the income derived from investments will fluctuate and can go down as well as up. A loss of principal may occur.
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Index Benchmarks
Equities
The S&P 500 Index is the Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Stock Prices Index of 500 stocks, an unmanaged index of common stock prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Russell 1000 Index is a market-cap weighted index that measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The Russell Mid Cap Index measures the performance of the 800 smallest companies in the Russell 1000 Index, which represent approximately 30% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 1000 Index. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged index of common stock prices that measures the performance of the 2000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. The MSCI EAFE Index is a free-float weighted equity index, which covers developed markets countries in Europe, Australasia, Israel, and the Far East. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that captures large and mid-cap representation across five EM countries in Latin America. The MSCI Frontier Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that captures large and mid-cap representation across 22 frontier markets countries. The STOXX Europe 600 Index is derived from the STOXX Europe Total Market Index (TMI) and is a subset of the STOXX Global 1800 Index. With a fixed number of 600 components, the STOXX Europe 600 Index represents large, mid and small capitalization companies across 18 countries of the European region. The Japan TOPIX Index is a capitalization-weighted index of the largest companies and corporations that are found in the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The German DAX is a capitalization-weighted blue chip stock market index consisting of the 30 major German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
The Shanghai Composite is a market capitalization weighted index of all A-shares and B-shares that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Euro Stoxx 50 Index, Europe's leading Blue-chip index for the Eurozone, provides a Blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the Eurozone. The Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 Index is an index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalization. FTSE MIB Index is composed of 40 Italian equities and seeks to replicate the broad sector weights of the Italian stock market. CAC 40 Index is composed of the 40 largest equities listed in France. SWISS Market Index is composed of the largest and most liquid stocks traded on the Geneva, Zurich, and Basel Stock Exchanges. Hang Seng Composite Index covers about 95% of the total market capitalization of companies listed on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. MSCI World Index, is a broad global equity index that represents large and mid-cap equity performance across 23 developed markets countries. It covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. CSI 300 Index covers 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. MSCI China Index captures large and mid cap representation across China H shares, B shares, Red chips, P chips and foreign listings (e.g. ADRs). With 461 constituents, the index covers about 85% of this China equity universe. Currently, the index also includes Large Cap A shares represented at 5% of their free float adjusted market capitalization. MSCI Brazil Index covers about 85% of the total market capitalization of the Brazilian equity universe. MSCI India Index covers about 85% of the total market capitalization of the Indian equity universe. MSCI Russia Index covers about 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Russia.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a leading measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 Index option prices.
Fixed Income
The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index represents an unmanaged diversified portfolio of fixed-income securities, including US Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities. The Bloomberg Barclays US High-Yield Index covers the USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged broad-based total return index composed of approximately 8,000 investment grade, fixed rate, and tax-exempt issues, with a remaining maturity of at least one year. The Bloomberg Barclays US High Yield Municipal Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers High Yield Municipal Bond Index) is an unmanaged index made up of bonds that are noninvestment grade, unrated, or rated below Ba1 by Moody’s Investors Service with a remaining maturity of at least one year. The J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index-Global (EMBI Global Index) is an unmanaged market capitalization Index that tracks total returns for USD-denominated debt instruments issued by emerging market sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers. The J.P. Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Global Diversified (GBI-EM Global Index) is a market capitalization Index that tracks the performance of local currency debt issued by emerging market governments. Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate Index refers to the Bloomberg Barclays EuroAgg Index. The index measures the market of investment grade, euro-denominated, fixed- rate bond market, including treasuries, government-related, corporate and securitized issues. Inclusion is based on currency denomination of a bond and not country of risk of the issuer. Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield Index refers to the Bloomberg Barclays Euro High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Index. The index measures the of non-investment grade, fixed-rate corporate bonds denominated in USD. Inclusion is based on the currency of issue, and not the domicile of the issuer. The index excludes emerging market debt.
Other
The S&P 500 Utilities Sector comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® utilities sector. The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed ex US Index is a subset of the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index and is designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies and REITS.
The S&P GSCI Commodity Index is a composite index of commodity sector returns, representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® consumer staples sector. The USD Index tracks the value of the USD relative to 6 major foreign currencies. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. The Housing Starts refers to US Housing Starts.
Commodities
WTI Oil refers to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil, a land-locked crude, delivered via pipeline into Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent Oil refers to Brent crude oil, a waterborne crude oil produced in the North Sea. OPEC refers to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. The Gold Spot price is quoted as US Dollars per Troy Ounce.
Currencies
Euro ($/€) refers to the Euro’s exchange rate with the Dollar. Pound ($/£) refers to the British Pound’s exchange rate with the US Dollar. Japanese Yen (¥/$) refers to the US Dollar’s exchange rate with the Japanese Yen. Swiss Franc (CHF/€) refers the Euro’s exchange rate with the Swiss Franc. Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY/$) refers to the US Dollar’s exchange rate with the Chinese Yuan Renminbi.
Rates
The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight. The LIBOR is the USD-denominated London Interbank Offered Rate, and is the average of interest rates estimated by each of the leading banks in London that it would be charged were it to borrow from other banks. The 2-Year Treasury is a US Treasury debt obligation that has a maturity of 2 years. The 10-Year Treasury is a US Treasury debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The 2-10 Treasury Slope is the difference between the 10-Year Treasury and the 2-Year Treasury. The Core-Periphery spreads refers to the spread between sovereign debt yields of core European countries and peripheral European countries. The German Bunds 2-Year is a German debt obligation that has a maturity of 2 years. The German Bunds 10-Year is a German debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The Japanese Govt Bonds 2-Year is a Japanese debt obligation that has a maturity of 2 years. The Japanese Govt Bonds 10-Year is a Japanese debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The UK Gilts 10-Year is a UK debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The Swiss Govt Bonds 10-Year is a Swiss debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The French OATs 10-Year is a French debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The Italian BTPs 10-Year is a Italian debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years. The Spanish Bonos 10-Year is a Spanish debt obligation that has a maturity of 10 years.
Spreads
High Yield (HY) Corporate Spread is the Barclays US Corporate High Yield Average Option Adjusted Spread (OAS), which measures the spread between the US Treasury yield curve and the Barclays US Corporate High Yield curve. The Bank Loan Spread is the daily discount margin (3-year life) of the Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index, which is designed to mirror the investable universe of the USD-denominated leveraged loan market. The Investment Grade (IG) Corporate Spread is the Barclays US Aggregate Corporate Average OAS, which measures the spread between the US Treasury yield curve and the Barclays US Corporate Average curve. The EMD Spread is the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Sovereign Spread, which measures the spread between the US Treasury yield curve and the J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Sovereign curve.
Although certain information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy, completeness or fairness. We have relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources.
