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The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness of the subsequent recovery, has played a part. Regulatory reforms to the financial sector, implemented in response to the GFC, may also have contributed. And the fact that the US hasn’t been hit by any shocks of sufficient size to knock it badly off course has certainly helped. But as the economy heads towards that all-time record in 2019, what could bring it back down to earth? And are we capable of predicting the end before it’s upon us?