Graham Hook, Head of UK Government Relations and Public Policy
Key takeaways
- Brexit Party stand-down boosts Conservatives’ hopes.
- Boris Johnson announces Conservative government would not seek extension to Brexit transition period, or future political alignment with the EU.
- Key metrics continue to favour the Conservatives.
- Two most likely election outcomes remain Conservative majority or a hung parliament with a Labour-led alliance.
Brexit Party announcement
Last week’s announcement by Nigel Farage that the Brexit Party will not contest seats won by the Conservatives in 2017 presented mixed news for the Conservatives.
It was a welcome fillip for Tory MPs defending marginal seats, given that the majority of Brexit Party voters would otherwise support the Conservatives (and in 8 of the 20 most marginal Conservatives constituencies, UKIP – the Brexit Party’s predecessor – won more than 1,000 votes in 2017).
However, in some of the marginal Labour-held seats that the Tories need to win to gain a majority, the Brexit Party’s decision to stand candidates risks making the Conservatives’ job substantially harder. For example, Labour are defending 19 constituencies with majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes. In eight of those seats in 2017, if UKIP voters had instead backed the Tories, the Conservatives would have won. That outcome could well be repeated in the current election.
Given Nigel Farage’s decision not to stand, it’s near certain that the Brexit Party will not win a single seat (in 2017, in the 20 Labour-held seats in which UKIP won the most votes, they failed in every single case to win even half the number of votes won by their Conservative opponents); but they could deny the Conservatives a majority. Therefore, Nigel Farage will come under continued pressure to stand down more candidates to enable a Conservative majority and the delivery of Brexit – something he has so far not ruled out.
PM announces Government will not seek transition period extension
The Brexit Party’s announcement came less than 24 hours after a major intervention from Boris Johnson in which he stated that a Conservative government would not seek an extension to the Brexit transition period beyond the end of 2020.
Johnson also stated he would seek to negotiate a free trade agreement “on the model of a super Canada plus arrangement” and that he would not seek future political alignment with the EU. The intervention was clearly designed to appeal to Brexit Party supporters, continuing the Conservatives’ strategy of uniting the ‘Leave’ vote.
However if, in government, the PM were to stick to his word, it clearly raises the renewed threat of a “no deal” exit – this time from the expiry of the transition period on 31st December 2020 (the UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement only allows for a single extension of the transition period, with the deadline for a decision to extend of 30th June 2020).
Trends from the first two weeks of the campaign
After two weeks of campaigning, and billions of pounds of spending pledges from both main parties, there has been little movement in the national opinion polls. Most observers will treat the headline polling numbers with caution given the failure to predict the results of the 2015 and 2017 elections.
However, the overall trend may be more reliable and indicates, so far, that both the Conservatives and Labour have made slight gains at the expense of the Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party. If that trend were to continue, it would provide a degree of comfort to Labour that they may hold onto seats where a significant split in the Remain vote would have allowed the Conservatives to win.
Beneath the headline numbers, many of the key metrics continue to favour the Conservatives. Boris Johnson remains the most popular choice for Prime Minister over Jeremy Corbyn by a ratio of approximately 2:1, although roughly a third of voters have yet to make up their minds.
Johnson is also seen as a stronger, more decisive leader than Corbyn, although both leaders are distrusted by the public. And Brexit continues to remain the most-cited top-three issue for the public by a wide margin, which plays to Boris Johnson’s pledge to “get Brexit done”.
However, there is little public knowledge of, or active enthusiasm for, Johnson’s deal with a majority of the public simply wanting to see the back of the current Brexit logjam.
What are the most likely election outcomes?
With a Labour majority still looking unlikely, the two most likely outcomes of December’s election are:
- Conservative majority. Even a slim majority would allow Boris Johnson to get his Withdrawal Agreement through the House of Commons, seeing the UK leave the EU by 31st January. However, if his majority is in single figures, the PM may be forced by rebel Conservative and opposition MPs to seek an extension to the transition period beyond 31st December 2020, unless he can demonstrate significant progress in agreeing a free trade agreement with the EU by the start of June (something trade experts believe is all but impossible).
- Hung Parliament: Labour-led coalition. In a hung Parliament, the Conservatives are unlikely to find any willing coalition partners, meaning Labour would be invited to seek to form a government. The SNP has already indicated its willingness to enable Jeremy Corbyn to enter Downing Street in return for a second referendum on Scottish independence. And while the Lib Dems have ruled out a coalition with a Corbyn-led Labour Party, it’s possible they could enter into a confidence-and-supply arrangement with Labour in return for a second referendum on Brexit. If such an alliance were formed, Mr Corbyn would seek a fourth Brexit extension beyond 31st January to enable a second Brexit referendum, the result of which could lead to the UK remaining in the EU. A Labour-led alliance is likely to be inherently unstable with the possibility of another general election within 12 months.
What happens next?
Despite the relatively positive picture for the Conservatives, with more than a month to go until polling day it’s likely that a large chunk of the electorate has yet to focus seriously on the choice before them. Furthermore, with the televised debates and publication of the parties’ manifestos still to come, there is a long way to go in this campaign and, after 2017, the Conservatives will be well aware that victory is anything but certain.
Timeline
12 December Election day
13 December Result announced
17th December Parliament expected to return
2020
31 January Article 50 period expires
30 June Deadline for agreeing extension of transition period if Withdrawal Agreement ratified
31st December Transition period expires
Important information
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