Political uncertainty is always present. But there seems to be a ratcheting up at present. In the US we await the implication of President Trump v2. Often the sequel is a let down but this one looks likely to match the original – in terms of impact.
“The more I practice the luckier I get”, is the famous adage attributed to Gary Player, a leading golfer of the 1970s and 1980s. In essence, he is right. Dedication and hard work are important building blocks of success and what could be seen as chance is, in reality, the results of painstaking effort. Yet success is a curious mixture – inspiration, perspiration, and indeed luck.
Last week saw the UK energy price cap raised for households, coming into effect in January. Consumers may not feel it – but we are lucky. Industry has no such protection and, as a consequence, we face the highest cost for electricity amongst our peer group. Looking at the latest government statistics, the UK is a clear outlier with only Slovakia approaching our levels. Relative to a median price derived by the International Energy Agency, the UK industrial electricity prices were 54% higher than the average in 2023.
UK Budget speculation continued to bubble away last week, with increased focus on employers’ National Insurance and Inheritance Tax.
It has not been a good week for UK infrastructure. EDF’s Hinkley Point nuclear plant needs more money, a middle eastern investor has written off its equity stake in Thames Water and the HS2 saga continues to astound.
The US economy continues to confound the sceptics. Last week’s employment data showed upside surprises across the board.
US exceptionalism is a phrased used to explain why the US is different from other economies. The dynamism, reflected in growth rates, innovation, trend setting, music, cinema etc sets the US apart.
Having returned from a short cycling holiday in Dorset I can confirm that the countryside is beautiful and lush – probably due to the high incidence of rain in September, if my experience is typical.
The idea of operational gearing is one which is reasonably well understood, but powerful, nonetheless. Incremental changes in sales once you have covered a business’s fixed costs drop through to profits dramatically. It is however very much a double-edged sword – if sales fall and the cost base doesn’t then you see any sales reduction magnified in its impact on a company’s profitability.
The size of global fixed income is frightening, even larger than global equity markets. This poses significant challenges for asset managers that offer global strategies.
Last week’s data was reassuring, indicating that economic activity is not poised to stumble. In the US, the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 54.1 and is consistent with a decent pace of growth.
Step back two weeks. World equity markets were in turmoil, led by Japanese and US tech shares. There were calls for an immediate cut in Fed Funds, with an emergency 50bps reduction being mooted.
When mainstream national newspapers start writing about the yen carry trade you know its impacting mortgage rates, shares and pensions – the stuff most people care about. So it was last week.
Data last week was mixed, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings indicating the direction of the major economies.
Even before the withdrawal of President Biden, there was a change in market mood, with investors starting to really focus on the implications of a second Trump presidency.
Spain has come a long way in 50 years – from authoritarian rule under General Franco to a forward looking and prosperous democracy.
The UK General Election went mostly to script but there were important takeaways. First, Labour won a huge majority but with a surprisingly low share of the popular vote. Second, the right-of-centre parties will start to realign, given the rout of the Conservative Party. Third, the two-party system is over. Voters will see that other parties can do well despite the electoral system.
The depressing thing about last week is that daylight hours are now shortening, having passed the summer solstice on Thursday. This event coincided with parts of Stonehenge being coated in orange powder paint as Just Stop Oil protesters targeted the site.
Am I turning into Victor Meldrew? Last week I found myself telling people how to queue properly for a taxi and I was surprised how direct I was. My wife, who was with me, made the observation (unhelpfully) that I was starting to resemble the grumpy character from the TV series 'One Foot in the Grave'. Perhaps it comes with age, as some inhibitions fall away and the inner character appears.
The surprise announcement of a general election drowned out other developments last week. It is a gamble for a governing party to test its popularity when opinion polls suggest a 20-point deficit.