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Jim Leaviss, Head of Retail Fixed Interest, recently updated an old chart from 2007 showing the relationship between a flattening yield curve and credit spread levels. Back then, this classic leading indicator of recessions correctly predicted a big sell-off in corporate bonds. The rest, as they say, is history.

Simon Edelsten, manager of the Artemis Global Select Fund, explains how US tariffs on imports from China may affect global markets – and present opportunities.

Concerns have shifted to the potential for corporate profits to be undermined if a trade war erupts with China announcing a new round of tariffs on US products.

With new Fed Chair Jerome Powell now in the hot seat, bond investors are keen to understand whether he will be more hawkish than his predecessor, Janet Yellen. Turning to the UK, the market is now pricing in a high probability that the Monetary Policy Committee hikes interest rates in May, but the flattening of the gilt curve may suggest the market doesn’t entirely share the Bank of England’s optimism on the UK economy.

How is the macro environment evolving compared to our 2018 Outlook? We are watching three main themes: global growth (on track), fiscal policy (looser than we expected) and monetary policy tightening (finally starting to matter). 

Over the past week financial markets have reacted negatively to the President’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminum, mainly due to fears of a trade war that could reduce global trade. In this note, we address a number of key questions that investors have been asking us about this issue.

The euro’s upward march against the US dollar has been on hiatus since the end of January. How do the arguments for the two currencies stack up, and where might they go from here?

March 22nd was World Water Day which aims to focus attention on the importance of water not only in our daily lives, but also for the sustainable development of the global economy.