There are 3 item(s) tagged with the keyword "fiscal policy".
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The recovery from the Covid crisis continues, with global activity now exceeding its pre-pandemic peak. However, this rapid rebound has already run into supply constraints in many sectors and economies, leading to a surge in global inflation. Some of these demand-supply imbalances should ease over the coming quarters, helping to cool price growth. But it’s hard to escape the conclusion that Covid has permanently damaged the supply side of the global economy, implying a less favourable trade-off between growth and inflation.
Ongoing inflationary shocks, the questions around interest rates and the emergence of the new Omicron Covid variant are all making navigating the next twelve months more challenging for investors. Nonetheless, when we look beyond the headlines, there remain some reasons for optimism going into 2022.
The US economic expansion has just become the second longest on record. If it continues beyond mid-2019, it will be number one. Its longevity is probably due to a mixture of circumstances, judgement and luck. The severity of the recession following the global financial crisis (GFC), coupled with the slowness of the subsequent recovery, has played a part. Regulatory reforms to the financial sector, implemented in response to the GFC, may also have contributed. And the fact that the US hasn’t been hit by any shocks of sufficient size to knock it badly off course has certainly helped. But as the economy heads towards that all-time record in 2019, what could bring it back down to earth? And are we capable of predicting the end before it’s upon us?
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