10 Aug 2022
As market dynamics twist and turn, a flexible approach delivers results
Arif Husain, Head of International Fixed Income
Key Insights
Among absolute return funds, we believe that the Dynamic Global Bond Strategy stands out as it seeks to provide not only regular returns in different environments but also diversification from risk markets. That means that during periods of volatility, when risky assets such as equities sell off, we strive to be a performance anchor. To help achieve this, we have a high‑quality bias—investing a large portion of our portfolio in high‑quality government bond markets where liquidity is typically better. But it’s not just a case of being long sovereign bond duration at all times as that simply won’t work when interest rates are rising like they did in the first half of this year. That’s why we manage duration actively and within a wide latitude—an approach that enables us to adapt to changing market conditions. This has been critical in 2022, so far, and we believe it will continue to be, given the likelihood that volatility persists as fixed income markets enter a new market regime without the liquidity support of central banks.
We manage duration dynamically and within a wide latitude, implementing both long and short duration positions. This gives us the flexibility to adapt to different market cycles and environments, including when rates are rising. For example, when interest rates are rising, we could move to quickly cut the portfolio’s overall duration (as low as minus one year) to minimize potential losses. By contrast, when rates are falling, we can increase overall duration to as high as six years to maximize possible gains.
…we manage duration actively and within a wide latitude—an approach that enables us to adapt to changing market conditions.
(Fig. 1) Historical duration of the Dynamic Global Bond (USD Hedged) representative portfolio
As of June 30, 2022.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
January 31, 2015 through June 30, 2022: Dynamic Global Bond (USD Hedged) representative portfolio. Index yield shown is for the Bloomberg Global Treasuries Index. Periods of rising and falling yields have been determined as periods of changes in yields of 15 bps or greater.
The representative portfolio is an account in the composite we believe most closely reflects current portfolio management style for the strategy. Performance is not a consideration in the selection of the representative portfolio. The characteristics of the representative portfolio shown may differ from those of other accounts in the strategy. Please see the GIPS® Composite Report for additional information on the composite.
Source: Bloomberg Index Services Limited. Please see Additional Disclosures for information on this Bloomberg information. Analysis by T. Rowe Price.
This dynamic approach to managing duration has been successfully applied during many changes in market trends and regimes since the strategy was launched:
In 2020, for example, we kicked off the year with the portfolio’s overall duration in negative territory. We quickly pivoted in February and significantly increased duration as our health care analysts and economists flagged concerns about the spread of the coronavirus and the risks to the global economy. The changes—particularly moving from a short duration to a long position in U.S. duration—bolstered performance at a time of heightened volatility and a huge sell‑off in risk markets.
Heading into 2022, we held the portfolio’s overall duration close to zero, anticipating that major central banks would become more hawkish to combat rising inflation pressures. Specifically, we saw potential for the withdrawal of liquidity support, which could mark the end of quantitative easing and the start of a new regime in fixed income markets. As such, we felt comfortable holding short duration positions in select developed market countries, such as the U.S. and UK, which worked well with global bond yields rising materially in the first half of this year as central banks responded to inflation by tightening monetary policy.
Crucial to our success in capturing changes in trends and regimes is the research of our senior economists and analysts, helping to identify inflection points in monetary policies and economic cycles.
(Fig. 2) Broad capabilities covering more than 80 countries
As of June 30, 2022.
Source: T. Rowe Price.
Our global research platform is the engine that powers our investment ideas. Covering more than 80 countries and over 40 currencies, our deep research capabilities enable us to uncover inefficiencies and exploit opportunities across the full fixed income investable base. Since inception, the portfolio’s investments have ranged from major government bonds to lesser‑known developing county bonds rated below investment grade.
…our deep research capabilities enable us to uncover inefficiencies and exploit opportunities across the full fixed income investable base.
The strategy is designed so that we can be nimble and take advantage of short‑term opportunities. In order to gain a holistic view of a country, analysts conduct in‑depth research into the following key areas: fundamentals, valuations, and technicals. At different times, any one of those factors may hold sway. For example, compelling valuations may lead us to implement a long position, while at another time, we might initiate a short position based on concerns over deteriorating fundamentals. Getting the timing right on what feature is likely to influence bond prices the most is essential. Italy is an example of a country where we have tactically gone short and long at different times during the strategy’s life.
Taking a long‑term investment view is also important. In smaller and less developed countries, in‑depth knowledge and research can go a long way. Taking the time to gain a deep understanding of a country’s economic prospects, politics, and policymaking can open up potential attractive long‑term investment opportunities that others miss or avoid because they do not have the resources to analyze the market properly. For example, we have been invested in local Serbian government bonds in the strategy since March 2015.
Since inception, our duration views, country selection, and yield curve positioning have been the largest positive alpha contributor in the strategy. Our ability to express these views on a range of different countries and be tactical in managing duration to capture trend changes and regime shifts has been the driver of this. That is why it is so important that we continue with this approach—particularly in the current environment, where volatility is likely to remain elevated as central banks tighten monetary policy at a time when growth is slowing.
Dynamic Global Bond (USD Hedged) Composite
Period Ended December 31, 2021. Figures Shown in U.S. Dollars.
*January 31, 2015, through December 31, 2015.
† Investment return and principal value will vary. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Monthly composite performance is available upon request.
‡ Effective May 1, 2021, the benchmark for the composite changed to the ICE BofA US 3‑Month Treasury Bill Index. Prior to this change, the benchmark was the 3 Month LIBOR in USD Index. The change was made because the firm viewed the new benchmark to be a better representation of the investment strategy of the composite. Historical benchmark representations have not been restated.
§ Preliminary—subject to adjustment.
Dynamic Global Bond (USD Hedged) Composite
Periods Ended June 30, 2022. Figures Are Calculated in U.S. Dollars.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Gross performance returns are presented before management and all other fees, where applicable, but after trading expenses. Net of fees performance reflects the deduction of the highest applicable management fee that would be charged based on the fee schedule contained within this material, without the benefit of breakpoints. Gross and net performance returns reflect the reinvestment of dividends and are net of all non‑reclaimable withholding taxes on dividends, interest income, and capital gains.
*Effective May 1, 2021, the benchmark for the composite changed to ICE BofA US 3‑Month Treasury Bill Index. Prior to May 1, 2021, the benchmark was the 3 Month LIBOR in USD Index. Historical benchmark representations have not been restated.
† The Value Added row is shown as Dynamic Global Bond (USD Hedged) Composite (Gross of Fees) minus the benchmark in the previous row. Please see Additional Disclosures for information about this ICE BofA information.
‡ Since Inception January 31, 2015, through December 31, 2015.
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This material is being furnished for general informational and/or marketing purposes only. The material does not constitute or undertake to give advice of any nature, including fiduciary investment advice, nor is it intended to serve as the primary basis for an investment decision. Prospective investors are recommended to seek independent legal, financial and tax advice before making any investment decision. T. Rowe Price group of companies including T. Rowe Price Associates, Inc. and/or its affiliates receive revenue from T. Rowe Price investment products and services. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of an investment and any income from it can go down as well as up. Investors may get back less than the amount invested.
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