For years, investors have faced the reality of lending to corporates at ever falling yields. Now, the high yield market is living up to its name. As rates have shifted higher, yields on high yield bonds continue to increase, even in the higher-quality part of the market.
Aegon AM’s Head of Macro Strategy Frank Rybinski (CFA), shares his insights on what he expects the Fed to do next and the monetary outlook for the remainder of 2023. Frank also discusses how he feels investors should position themselves for the environment ahead.
In the latest Strategic Thinking video, Colin Finlayson, co-manager of the Aegon Strategic Bond strategies, reviews global fixed income markets in May, discusses the why the level of yields, peak in inflation and the end of the central banks hiking cycle, make the outlook for bonds so compelling and explains how the fund is allocated against this backdrop.
Markets have become clouded with uncertainty in 2023. Many asset classes lack clear direction, which makes short-term asset allocation decisions challenging. We therefore identify three key themes that global investors should consider in the nearer-term horizon (1-3 months).
“We have a finite environment – the planet. Anyone who thinks that you can have infinite growth in a finite environment is either a madman or an economist” - Sir David Attenborough
We believe investors in our ethical funds are best served by screening which is as clear and unambiguous as possible. Although our approach has remained broadly consistent for over 30 years, we have successfully evolved our policies to incorporate new ethical issues as they have arisen.
Almost exactly three years ago, I penned an article titled ‘The Dividend Dilemma’. It was the depths of the Covid-induced market selloff; companies were cutting or suspending dividends left, right and center; and analysts were predicting big cuts to global dividends from which they would take years to recover. I anticipated a fall of around 30%.
After over a decade of being a friend, duration risk became the bond market’s foe at the end of 2020. For the next two years, duration was a bogeyman for bond investors, causing sharply negative returns as government bond yields skyrocketed in response to higher inflation and aggressive rate hikes from central banks.
In the latest Strategic Thinking video, Colin Finlayson, co-manager of the Strategic Bond strategies, discusses whether the Fed hiking cycle could be over, the US debt ceiling, the ongoing US regional bank turmoil and the next moves for the Bank of Japan. Against this backdrop he also reviews the performance of the Aegon Strategic Bond strategies.
In the latest Strategic Thinking video, Colin Finlayson, co-manager of the Strategic Global Bond strategies, shares his thoughts on the market backdrop for fixed income as the stresses within the banking system spread from the US to Europe, how the portfolios were affected by the headwinds from the banking sector and gives his outlook for the next few months.
Climate change and the transition to net zero is an increasingly important theme for investors. Significant action is required to reduce our greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the world. We expect the scrutiny by regulators and underlying pension scheme members of climate-related exposures to only increase. This raises the question how climate change can be incorporated within portfolios, including fixed income portfolios.
In the latest Strategic Thinking video, Colin Finlayson, co-manager of the Strategic Bond strategy, shares his thoughts on the market backdrop for fixed income, if the market is over-or-underpricing rate hike expectations, where he thinks credit markets will go next and gives his outlook for the next few months.
The opening months of 2023 have been something of a curate’s egg for the global high yield market. January witnessed a truly monumental rally that surprised many with its ferocity, driven in no small part by the supportive technical environment. However, February’s performance has been more circumspect as, among other things, rates markets have sold off and put pressure on total returns.
The positive correlation of bond and equity returns stood out in 2022. Vincent McEntegart, Co-Manager of Aegon Diversified Monthly Income Fund, and Nick Edwardson, Senior Investment Specialist of Multi Asset & Solutions, discuss how the relationship between equities and bonds might change as the cycle progresses, how portfolios can adapt to drive returns and their reaction to current concerns around financial stocks.
The annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference has become one of the preeminent healthcare investment gatherings in the industry. It brings together members of the investment community with industry leaders from hundreds of companies, ranging from emerging fast-growth companies and innovative technology creators, to large and established for-profit and not-for-profit entities.
Although markets have rallied, the outlook for 2023 remains uncertain. Vincent McEntegart, Co-Manager of Aegon Diversified Monthly Income Fund, and Nick Edwardson, Senior Investment Specialist of Multi Asset & Solutions, discuss the attractiveness of bonds verses equities, having the right balance of asset classes and picking opportunities that will be the most resilient in this environment.
They think it’s all over
Challenging economic conditions are setting the stage for an interesting year ahead. As the economy slows and the cycle ages, companies will likely face financial headwinds. Although firms are entering the year with solid balance sheets, can high yield issuers weather a downturn?
As we head towards the completion of Rishi Sunak’s first 100 days as UK Prime Minister, it is worth reflecting on how sterling credit markets have fared since the end of the disastrous and short-lived Truss Premiership.
Although the economy will likely face a recession, there are signs that 2023 will be a better year with inflation easing and valuations facing less of a headwind. Nick Edwardson, Senior Investment Specialist in our Multi-asset and solutions team, discusses how we expect the correlation between bonds and equities to flip, the evolving currency markets environment and the impact of the global transition to net zero. The ability to make timely asset allocation changes will be key to navigating this shifting investment landscape.