Perspectives from GSAM Strategic Advisory Solutions
Perspectives from GSAM Strategic Advisory Solutions
Globally, the severe economic and health consequences of COVID-19 will not be equally distributed, but we trust that this moment too shall pass. Our baseline economic forecast is for the sudden deceleration in economic activity to be most acute in the second quarter, followed by a resurgence in growth during the second half of 2020 and into 2021. The remainder of this edition will focus on summarizing our macro expectations and providing a framework for riding the storm out.
On 11th March the Bank of England announced a set of policy measures aimed at easing the impact of the disruption caused by the COVID-19 outbreak. This was coordinated with announcements on fiscal spending unveiled later in the day by Chancellor Sunak as part of the Budget.
Following extreme volatility in financial markets, signs of dysfunction in the bond markets and rising disruptions in US economic activity, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) responded on Sunday with a massive easing program. The Fed’s move, which accompanies a series of steps by central banks and governments around the world, signals that the policy response to the coronavirus outbreak has shifted into high gear.
The number of new daily cases in China continues to be in the low double digits with the government now considering immigration restrictions to stem the flow of the virus coming from outside the country. The total number of cases outside mainland China has now exceeded those reported within China. South Korea has also shown a very positive response to the virus with only 74 new cases and a fatality rate of less than 1% highlighting the value of increased testing. While the situation continues to improve in China and other parts of Asia, Europe and North America have begun enacting more extensive measures in an attempt to slow the spread of the virus and ‘flatten the curve’.
Too big to ignore. China is the third largest sovereign bond market in the world, with a high quality rating and low government debt-to-GDP.
Many market observers in 2019 believe they have witnessed cyclical warning signs which start the countdown to the next recession, we believe a recession is not a foregone conclusion.
Triannual Insights and Implementation Europe, Middle East, and Africa Edition 2020: Edition 1
Many market observers in 2019 believe they have witnessed cyclical warning signs which start the countdown to the next recession, we believe a recession is not a foregone conclusion.
Julia Rees is a senior portfolio strategist at Goldman Sachs, where she and her team advise financial institutions and advisers on asset allocation and portfolio strategy.
By 2020, women are expected to command more than £58 trillion in wealth globally, and financial advisers who lack a strategy to serve women effectively are likely to fall behind, writes Julia Rees. Here, she explains the three main reasons why women are key clients …
The continued economic expansion, the fluidity of global politics, and the shifting tectonics of monetary policy: All are reasons we think staying invested, but staying focused on alpha and on risk, is the appropriate path.
Primary Election Results
In this publication we aim to dispel the misconception that investing in low or negative yielding debt cannot generate positive total returns.
By focusing on three key areas and associated action steps, writes Brendan McCurdy, advisers can give their practice the best chance of achieving its maximum value whether that be for a sale or for a successor
We believe 2019 offers a better deal for investors for three key reasons: Continued expansion in global growth and corporate profits, a low bar for positive surprises and attractive valuations.
The first half of 2018 has been challenging for emerging markets. Following an incredibly strong 2017, where EM equities were up close to 40%, the asset class fell almost -7%. Furthermore, for the first time since early 2016, EM meaningfully underperformed developed markets, which returned -0.5%.