Invesco

Consumer spending continues to rise

US President Donald Trump announced the US and China have agreed in principle to a trade accord. However, China has stopped short of calling this a “deal.” As we assess what we know about the agreement, it seems clear that China has the upper hand in its negotiations with the US. By Kristina Hooper and David Chao

Although the current US business expansion became the longest on record from July 2019 – exceeding the 120 months of the 1991-2001 upswing – it has also been the slowest, with real GDP growth averaging only 1.8% p.a. since 2009.

Five years ago, we added an investment idea into the Invesco Global Targeted Returns Strategy that incorporated a view on Polish government bonds. We believed then (and continue to believe now) that there are benefits to be found in holding selective, high-yielding emerging market local currency debt – particularly those with attractive currencies and improving economic indicators and fundamentals.

The US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. What is the yield curve’s success in predicting previous US recessions? Is the inversion consistent with US data? What other reasons could be causing the inversion? Fund Manager, Stuart Edwards gives his views on the recent inversion of the yield curve.

Will the US follow and what can be done to alleviate this problem?

Fed Chairman Powell cites weakening global growth, trade policy developments and below-target inflation as impetus for rate cut.

Watch Stephen Anness and Andrew Hall, Global Equities Fund Managers, give their review of the second quarter of 2019, including the economic and political drivers of volatility, and their thoughts on valuation divergence and prospects for the short term.

John Greenwood, Chief Economist of Invesco, shares his current thoughts on the global economy.

The European Equities team look at the widening disparity of valuations within the European market and how this impacts risk within portfolios.

Read our latest research on diversifying oil exposure, how patent data can be a predictor of equity returns in innovation-based companies, fixed income factor investing - and China’s second tier cities and the shift toward a consumption-driven economy.

Bond yields have rallied strongly since Wednesday’s Fed meeting. At the time of writing the 10-year US Treasury yield is testing 2%. We are not adding duration risk at these low levels of yield. In the UK funds, duration stays low. In the Luxembourg based funds we have reduced duration slightly.

And they’re off. The race to become the next Conservative Party leader and UK Prime Minister has officially started. Who might win and what are the implications for Brexit?

Companies backed by assets, with a history of paying dividends to shareholders?  Or targets for overregulation?  Ciaran Mallon considers the case for regulated utilities.

Sebastian Mackay from the Henley Multi Asset team shares his thoughts on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and how policymakers may be running out of options.

Fund Manager Georgina Taylor travelled to India to meet with an array of experts, ranging from senior officials of the government and the country’s central bank to members of the news media, to see how policy changes are shifting the dynamics for investing.

Members of the Henley Fixed Interest team give their view on recent market developments and where they are seeing value in this Q&A.