What does ‘business’ mean in various societies and how do attitudes towards business reflect the culture of those societies?
There is a line in the spoof history book ‘1066 and All That’ that refers to the sides in the English Civil War of the 17th century: Cavaliers (Wrong but Wromantic) and the Roundheads (Right but Repulsive). As a child I wanted to be a Cavalier but as an adult I find myself being a Roundhead.
Time for a windfall tax on unearned gains? Yes, according to a lot of the media, with reports highlighting the bumper profits of BP and Shell. The fact that BP made a loss due to the write down of its Russian asset was not widely reported.
Markets took fright of the worsening growth outlook last week. Despite more hawkish noises from the US Federal Reserve, we saw a rally in bonds on Friday, taking 10-year US yields away from the 3% level that looked likely earlier in the week.
What does ESG integration mean for fixed income investors? Let’s park the thorny question of government bonds and look at credit.
Time to reflect on the quarter. Government bonds have been badly impacted by the rise in interest rate expectations, a product of inflation and more hawkish communications from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
It seems to me that there are really three forms of government: governments which trust their people, governments which don’t trust their people and governments that steal from their people.
Matthew Franklin, Fund Manager at Royal London Asset Management, discusses the growing interest in carbon within investment portfolios and how he sees the market evolving over time.
I promised to be a bit more upbeat this week – but it is difficult. The movements in markets in the last few days reflect the volatility/uncertainty that a crisis creates. But we have to remember that in the first instance this is a human tragedy.
The Whig interpretation of history implicitly underpins a lot of Western thought. It sees political and societal development through the lens of liberal democracy with secular trends of technological advancement, greater political representation, freer speech, and all-round progress. I believe that this has been a good thing and reflects the maturing of societies – albeit at different paces.
The recovery and inflation trades were the dominant themes of 2021 – a tough environment for global government bonds which provided negative absolute returns for the year, as yields trended upwards from low levels. However, with inflation expectations growing and nominal yields on the rise, real yields reached all-time lows. This saw global index-linked government bond funds perform very strongly and significantly outperform traditional government bonds last year.
We’ve been very positive on global high yield since central banks stepped in so promptly to support markets on an unprecedented scale following the initial impact of Covid-19 in March 2020. It was hard to be anything else, particularly once the Federal Reserve (Fed) committed to buying corporate bonds as well as government debt, and that position has served our clients well over most of the period since then.
Last year, sterling investment grade credit spreads hit their lowest levels since 2007. With a quantitative easing (QE) programme in place that included the purchase of corporate bonds, and with fiscal programmes including the furlough scheme and bounce-back loans, corporates garnered extremely strong support from policy makers, quelling the likelihood of default.
Two years have passed since Covid-19 emerged on the world scene. The appearance of the more transmissible Omicron variant reminds us that the pandemic is, sadly, not over. High vaccination rates make a return to a deep and prolonged lockdown unlikely, though, and global activity measures have made the round trip back to their pre-pandemic levels. What’s different are policy settings and inflation dynamics. Our base case is that loose policy keeps global growth strong in 2022, while inflation drops from its highs as supply chain disruption eases
While retaining a very positive longer-term view on sustainable investing, we expected 2021 to be a challenging year – as presaged by the performance of our sustainable funds during November 2020 as the ‘Covid-19 reopening’ trade played out. However, as of early December, the funds have had a strong 2021, although this masks periods of strong out and underperformance, rather than a consistent trend.
Richard Marwood, Senior Fund Manager at Royal London Asset Management, discusses the prospects for UK equities in 2022, reflects on an eventful 2021 and shares his longer-term views on dividends.
Peter Rutter, Head of Equities at Royal London Asset Management, discusses his market views for the year ahead, what themes we can expect to emerge and assesses the market performance of 2021.
It is said that happiness is a consequence of expectations versus outcomes. Anyone expecting to live a life without setbacks, unexpected events and challenges, relative to the outcome, is likely to be disappointed.
Do we get the leaders we deserve? In many ways we do – as people who rise to the top have a habit of reflecting the mood at that point in time.
My inbox was full of emails last week from strategists pushing up their US treasury yield forecasts for 2022 and 2023. I guess that is not surprising given the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print, which showed US inflation at 7%, and a more hawkish message from the US Federal Reserve.